What this reference covers
- Expected value from first principles, in probability and in odds
- Finding a fair line by removing vig, then measuring your edge against it
- The full Kelly formula, derived and worked
- Fractional Kelly, exposure caps and the variance trade-off
- Simultaneous and correlated positions
- A pre-bet checklist: edge, price, size, discipline
Download
Two formats, same content. The PDF opens a print-ready reference with a branded cover page; the Word file is editable if you want to annotate or extract formulas into your own notes.
// not an app download
This is an educational reference document (PDF and Word), not a betting app, software, account, or picks service. Nothing here is installed and nothing places a bet. To run these calculations interactively, use the calculators; to read the same material as articles, see the guides.
FAQ
Is this a picks service or betting software?
No. It is an educational reference in PDF and Word covering expected-value and staking math. It contains no picks, no predictions, no software and no account — only formulas and worked examples.
What staking math does the field guide cover?
Expected value from first principles in both probability and odds terms; finding a fair line by removing vig and measuring your edge against it; the full Kelly formula derived and worked; and fractional Kelly with exposure caps and the variance trade-off.
Does it tell me how much to bet?
It explains the math that sizes a bet — the Kelly fraction and fractional-Kelly adjustments — using illustrative numbers. It is educational reference material, not personalised advice, and every stake it derives is only as sound as the probability estimate behind it.