~/decoded · long-form market reading
5 piecesWhere the desk shows its work. Market structure, regulatory news, and quant reading of supply/demand shocks in the global gaming and betting tape. Each piece signed, sourced, and dated.
Decoded — Why +EV bets keep getting harder to find: CLV convergence and market-depth evolution in 2026 US books
The same retail tools that found 2-point edges in 2022 now surface 0.4-point edges in 2026. Not because bettors got worse — because regulated-market microstructure has flattened. We decode the three forces compressing edge: faster line aggregation, deeper sharp filtering, and structurally tighter opening prices.
Decoded — Why 6:5 blackjack and -120 NFL juice are the same trade
Bellagio just rolled most blackjack tables to 6:5 naturals. DraftKings widened NFL spread juice from -110 to -115. Different floors, same operator move: trading visible price for invisible margin. We decode the math, the behavioral lever, and what it tells you about pricing power on both sides of the gaming desk.
NUSTAR Cebu's third tower — a supply-shock read for the Philippine table-game tape
A second integrated resort in Cebu, a 1,700-seat theatre, and a 2027 ramp. We treat the announcement as a supply shock and walk through what that does to drop, hold, and competing-book Manila pricing assumptions.
Three ways to remove vig — and when each one lies to you
Multiplicative, additive, power. We benchmark all three across 4,000 markets.
Why books prefer player props (and what that does to your EV)
Liquidity is thin, models are weaker, margins are wider. Here's the math.